The Fragreport

Last month proved to be the worst trading month of the year as the dreaded “September Effect” once again claimed the month for the bears (see Market Data section). We’re referring to an anomaly involving the historical average of a 1% decline for the S&P 500 in the month of September (1928-2021).

U.S. equity markets staged an impressive rally in July after a historically awful first half of the year. All major indices posted their best months in over two-years as they surpassed their 50- and 100-day moving averages. Unfortunately, the gains we witnessed in July fizzled in August as investors quickly lost hope that a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve was on the horizon.

Equity markets are in a bear market. At present only the Dow Jones Industrial Average is failing to meet the technical definition of a bear market which is a 20% decline from all-time high, yet it may come soon enough.

Last Friday’s end-of-day turnaround rally possibly revealed where investors think the war in Ukraine is headed. What does this mean for the Market going forward?

Markets moved higher in February as continued optimism was generated by fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary policy, and COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.20%, the S&P 500 gained 2.60%, while the NASDAQ lagged with a gain of .90%.

Results from the 2020 Election are pointing towards a divided government reducing the risk of significant policy changes and impact on market trajectory while advancements in COVID-19 vaccines and prospects of an accommodative Federal Reserve maintain a positive outlook for markets.